The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. Sydney: Murdoch Press. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. And that was when I was a child !! As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. In case of the PLA, the following needs to be factored in. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? [5] Andrew Browne. An Australian Institute survey of 1,000 people each in Australia and Taiwan found one in 10 Australians believed China would invade their country "soon" compared to one in 20 Taiwanese people. great commentary, thankyou for your input one and all. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. War and the arming for war is the defining rationale behind the (dominant) Western Economies. http://www.alternet.org/world/chomsky-americas-obsession-destroys-earths-climate. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. Agree with all comments . Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. It saddens me that our governments are so imbecilic that they cannot see past their current term or the noses on their faces and are selling out future generations. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. China will be a vastly different case to what the West has previously encountered and then dominated, as it has adopted the Wests interests in being a regional as well as global controller and therefore the case of China is completely different than what has gone before in the power-stakes of the twentieth century. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. I must admit I skimmed this piece. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . God help our descendents. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. Historical Statistics. [11] GALLUPWorld. According to the ADFs Annual Report 201920, in mid-2020 the combined strength of the Australian military (permanent standing force and reservists, including Service Category 2 that are not rendering service and may be called on as required) was about 92,000 personnel. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. [9] Ezra Vogel. Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. [10] Angus Madisson. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. War is a fools game and China knows it. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. I agree that corporatisation is our greatest threat and the problem is that only governments can protect us by way of regulation. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. When Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 last year, China was incensed. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. Everyone is doing it hard at present. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. Or so it seems. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. 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